Center for American Progress senior fellow Mark Haggerty and Dr. Megan Lawson of Headwaters Economics explain why rural counties with large economic output can still lose population, as automation and stagnant wages in oil and gas, timber, and agriculture leave fewer local jobs. They examine Sen. Mike Lee’s 2025 public land sale amendment, pitched as a housing solution, which set no requirements that homes go to local workers or be tied to area median income, and note that in second-home markets like St. George, Utah, added housing is likely to become more second homes. Lawson reports that in communities around Grand Staircase-Escalante National Monument, inflation-adjusted per capita income rose 41 percent and earnings per job rose 26 percent (2001 to 2022), and that mining employment rose as well. Haggerty proposes replacing annual county payments from federal land revenue with a permanent fund, and points to Wallowa Resources in Oregon as a model for a stewardship economy.

What public lands actually do, and don’t do, for the communities next door

Mark Haggerty is a senior fellow at the Center for American Progress, where he works on rural economies, natural resources, and fiscal policy. Dr. Megan Lawson leads outdoor recreation, economic development, and demographics research at Headwaters Economics, with more than 20 years of experience as a quantitative economist. Bill and Anders sit down with both of them to ask what public lands actually do, and don’t do, for the communities next door, and why the old story that extraction rescues rural economies no longer matches the numbers.

Haggerty explains that oil and gas, timber, and agriculture have seen steep productivity gains and automation, which means fewer jobs, stagnant wages, and declining benefits, so some of the highest-output rural counties are losing population even as they export commodities. He also has sympathy for the loudest rural counties: in Oregon, state tax limits kept counties from replacing federal timber revenue once it declined, so asking Washington for more is easier than rewriting state rules. Lawson describes the “amenity trap,” where the qualities that draw visitors and residents to a place, such as a national monument or a new trail system, can price out teachers and long-term residents and strain water systems, wildfire response, and flood recovery. Her advice is to plan for success while an existing industry still funds the transition, and she contrasts Farmington, New Mexico, which passed a quarter-percent sales tax to diversify, with Grants, New Mexico, where uranium and coal mines closed before an outdoor economy could take hold. On housing, Lawson says that land is rarely the limiting factor, that Sen. Mike Lee’s 2025 public land sale amendment carried no requirements tying homes to local workers or area median income, and that in second-home markets like St. George, Utah, more housing may simply mean more second homes. She also walks through Headwaters’ updated analysis of communities near national monuments: whatever trends were underway before designation continued afterward, and around Grand Staircase-Escalante, inflation-adjusted per capita income rose 41 percent, earnings per job rose 26 percent, and there were more mining jobs after designation than before.

Haggerty argues that the current administration treats public lands as assets to liquidate, which he describes as turning rural areas into a “resource colony,” and says the alternative is managing for stewardship rather than commodity production. He outlines a proposal to replace the annual county payments that come from federal land revenue with a permanent fund, invested through community development financial institutions, impact investors, and community foundations, plus a second fund for economic development grants. He points to Wallowa Resources in Oregon as a model for a stewardship economy, and recounts how legislation introduced with Senators Wyden and Crapo to refinance Secure Rural Schools drew support from the National Association of Counties and opposition from both ends of the spectrum. The conversation closes on whether the economic case for public lands trades away the moral one. Haggerty says nothing replaces beauty and wonder in economics; Lawson says the two don’t have to be separate, since dollar values keep the things we care about from scoring a zero when trade-offs are weighed.

In this episode:

• Why high-output counties still lose people Automation and stagnant wages in oil and gas, timber, and agriculture mean rural communities can produce a lot of value without seeing it in local jobs or prosperity.
• Why Oregon counties couldn’t replace lost timber revenue State limits on property tax assessment and rates kept counties from capturing new revenue after federal timber payments declined.
• The amenity trap How a thriving outdoor recreation economy can bring housing, infrastructure, and disaster-response costs that small gateway communities struggle to pay for, and why planning ahead matters.
• Farmington and Grants, New Mexico Two towns at different points of an economic transition, and what diversifying while an existing industry still funds it looks like.
• Public land sales as a housing fix Why land is rarely the limiting factor for affordability, and why Sen. Mike Lee’s 2025 amendment set no requirements tying homes to local workers.
• What national monuments did for nearby economies Headwaters’ updated analysis of communities near monuments, including the Grand Staircase-Escalante figures on income, earnings per job, and mining employment.
• A permanent fund for county payments Haggerty’s proposal to replace annual federal land revenue payments with permanent, invested funds, and why both counties and environmental groups have opposed earlier versions.
• Stewardship economies Wallowa Resources in Oregon as an example of federal land management that creates local contracting work and leaves resilient landscapes behind.
• Dollars and intrinsic value Whether making an economic case for public lands trades away the moral one, and why Lawson argues that valuing what we care about keeps it from counting as zero.

Links & Resources

Media & Books:

• The Amenity Trap: How high-amenity communities can avoid being loved to death — Headwaters Economics report on how outdoor recreation communities can face housing, infrastructure, and affordability pressures, and the policy options available to them. 
• Economic performance of communities near national monuments — Headwaters Economics analysis of economic trends in communities adjacent to national monuments before and after designation. 
• High County GDP No Guarantee of Growth — Headwaters Economics research on rural counties with high economic output that are losing population. 
• Protecting Public Land Revenue-Sharing Governments From the Fiscal Risks of Economic Transitions — Center for American Progress report by Sharon Ferguson and Mark Haggerty proposing a permanent fund financed with public land receipts to make stable payments to revenue-sharing counties. 

Organizations & Initiatives:

• Center for American Progress — Public policy organization where Mark Haggerty is a senior fellow. 
• Headwaters Economics — Bozeman-based research organization where Dr. Megan Lawson leads work on outdoor recreation, economic development, and demographics. 
• Wallowa Resources — Enterprise, Oregon nonprofit working on stewardship-based rural economic development, cited by Haggerty as a model. 
• The Conservation Alliance — Outdoor industry coalition Anders cites as having helped shift the narrative on public lands’ economic value. 
• National Association of Counties (NACo) — Association of county governments that endorsed the earlier Secure Rural Schools refinancing legislation Haggerty describes.

Places & Landscapes:

• Grand Staircase-Escalante National Monument — Southern Utah monument at the center of Headwaters’ economic analysis of communities near national monuments. 
• Farmington, New Mexico — Northwest New Mexico community that passed a quarter-percent sales tax to diversify its economy through outdoor recreation.
• Grants, New Mexico — Community between Gallup and Albuquerque where uranium and coal mine closures preceded efforts to build an outdoor recreation economy.
• St. George, Utah — Second-home market cited as an example of why added housing may not improve affordability.
• West Yellowstone, Montana — Gateway community with about 1,500 year-round residents, cited as an example of small towns paying for services used by millions of visitors.

Government & Policy:

• Secure Rural Schools program — Federal program providing payments to counties with national forest land for schools, roads, and other services. 
• Payments in Lieu of Taxes (PILT) — Federal payments that help local governments offset lost property tax revenue from nontaxable federal lands. 
• O&C Lands (Oregon and California Railroad Revested Lands) — BLM-managed timberlands in western Oregon whose counties historically received timber revenue payments. 
• Northwest Forest Plan — 1994 federal forest management plan for the Pacific Northwest whose timber management changes reduced county revenues. 

People Mentioned:

• Senator Mike Lee — Utah senator who introduced the 2025 public land sale amendment discussed in the episode.
• Senators Ron Wyden and Mike Crapo — Cosponsors, per Haggerty, of legislation to create a sovereign wealth fund to refinance Secure Rural Schools.

Mark Haggerty is a senior fellow on the Energy and Environment team at American Progress. With a reputation as a nonpartisan expert committed to practical solutions, Haggerty is engaged in efforts to develop a comprehensive national policy that aligns climate, energy, and public lands conservation goals with rural communities’ economic success.

Dr. Megan Lawson uses economic and statistical analysis to better understand the issues that communities face such as the economic potential and impacts of housing and land use policies, outdoor recreation, economic diversification, and public land management.

Megan is known for her expertise in measuring the economic and community impacts of outdoor recreation and the unique challenges facing communities with outdoor recreation and nearby public lands. She applies analytical skills to land use, natural resource, and public health topics, with an emphasis on the unique needs and opportunities for rural communities.

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